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APPROACHES TO LIABILITY-RELATIVE ASSET ALLOCATION

Learning Outcomes

describe and evaluate characteristics of liabilities that are relevant to asset allocation
discuss approaches to liability-relative asset allocation
recommend and justify a liability-relative asset allocation

Hedging/Return-Seeking Portfolio Approach

In this approach, the liability-relative asset allocation task is divided into two parts. We distinguish as “basic” the two-portfolio approach in the case in which there is a surplus available to allocate to a return-seeking portfolio and as “variants” the approach as applied when there is not a positive surplus. In the basic case, the first part of the asset allocation task consists of hedging the liabilities through a hedging portfolio. In the second part, the surplus (or some part of it) is allocated to a return-seeking portfolio, which can be managed independently of the hedging portfolio (for example, using mean–variance optimization or another method). An essential issue involves the composition of the hedging portfolio. In some cases, such as the LOWTECH frozen DB pension plan, the hedging portfolio is straightforward to identify. The designated cash flows can be hedged via cash flow matching, duration matching, or immunization (as explained in the fixed-income readings). This hedge will support the future cash flows with little or no risk.

In LOWTECH’s application of the basic two-portfolio approach, the small surplus causes the pension plan to invest most of its capital in the hedging portfolio. The hedging portfolio can be approximated by the long-bond indexed investment as a first cut. Thus, given a 4% discount rate, US$2.261 billion is placed in long bonds. The remaining US$0.239 billion is invested in a portfolio of higher expected return assets, such as stocks, real estate, and hedge funds. This approach guarantees that the capital is adequate to pay future liabilities, as long as the hedging portfolio does not experience defaults.

Note that if the discount rate were 2% rather than 4%, the pension plan would be underfunded even if all assets were placed in a hedging portfolio. In such a case, the pension plan sponsor would either develop a strategy to increase the funding ratio so that the liabilities would be eventually paid or apply a variant of the two-portfolio approach. An underfunded plan will require higher contributions from the sponsor than a plan that is fully funded or overfunded.

The basic two-portfolio approach is most appropriate for conservative investors, such as insurance companies, and for overfunded pension plans that wish to reduce or eliminate the risk of not being able to pay future liabilities.

Several variants of the two-portfolio approach are possible. These include a partial hedge, whereby capital allocated to the hedging portfolio is reduced in order to generate higher expected returns, and dynamic versions whereby the investor increases the allotment to the hedging portfolio as the funding ratio increases. The specification of this allotment is often referred to as the liability glide path. These variants do not hedge the liabilities to the full extent possible given the assets and thus are less conservative than the basic approach discussed above. Still, there can be benefits to a partial hedge when the sponsor is able to increase contributions if the funding ratio does not increase in the future to 1 or above.

In the following discussion, we focus on determining the hedging portfolio.

Forming the Hedging Portfolio

The hedging portfolio must include assets whose returns are driven by the same factor(s) that drive the returns of the liabilities. Otherwise, even if the assets and liabilities start with equal values, the assets and liabilities will likely become inconsistent over time. One example involves promises (cash outflows) that are dependent upon future inflation. The hedging portfolio in this situation would often include index-linked (inflation-linked) Treasury bonds, again cash matched to the liabilities or immunized to the degree possible.

If there is an active market for the hedging portfolio (securities) in question, the present value of future cash flows is equal to a market value of the assets contained in the hedging portfolio. In this case, the date of valuation for the assets must be the same as the date of valuation for the liabilities. Absent market values, some form of appraised value is used.

The task of forming the hedging portfolio is complicated by the discount rate assumption and by the need to identify assets that are driven by the same factors that affect the liabilities. For example, if the discount rate is set by reference to a marketable instrument, such as the long government bond index, but the liability cash flows are driven by a factor such as inflation, the hedging task may require the use of instruments beyond nominal bonds (perhaps multiple instruments, such as interest rate swaps, inflation-linked bonds, and real assets). And in many applications, the hedge cannot be fully accomplished due to the nature of the driving factors (e.g., if they are non-marketable factors, such as economic growth).

If the uncertainties in the cash flows are related to non-market factors, such as future salary increases, the discount rate will depend upon regulations and tradition. Clearly, high discount rates lead to high funding ratios and in most cases require lower contributions from the sponsoring organization (at least in the short run). Conversely, lower discount rates give rise to lower funding ratios and thereby higher contributions. In the former case, investors with high discount rates will need to generate higher asset returns to achieve their promises if the pension plan sponsor wishes to avoid future contributions. A more conservative route is to designate a lower discount rate, as is the case in much of Europe and Asia. In all cases, it is the regulator’s responsibility to set the guidelines, rules, and penalties involved in determining contribution policy.

Several issues complicate the valuation of liability cash flows. In many situations, investors must satisfy their promises without being able to go to a market and purchase a security with positive cash flows equal in magnitude to the liability cash flows.

At times, uncertain liabilities can be made more certain through the law of large numbers. For example, life insurance companies promise to pay beneficiaries when a policyholder dies. The life insurance company can minimize the risk of unexpected losses by insuring large numbers of individuals. Then, valuation of liabilities will use present value of expected cash flows based on a low (or even zero) risk premium in the discount rate. The field of application of the law of large numbers can be limited. For example, averages do not eliminate longevity risk.

Limitations

The basic two-portfolio approach cannot be directly applied under several circumstances. First, if the funding ratio is less than 1, the investor cannot create a fully hedging portfolio unless there is a sufficiently large positive cash flow (contribution). In this case, the sponsor might increase contributions enough to generate a positive surplus. As an alternative, there are conditional strategies that might help improve the investor’s funding ratio, such as the glide path rules.18

A second barrier occurs when a true hedging portfolio is unavailable. An example involves losses due to weather-related causes, such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these cases, the investor might be able to partially hedge the portfolio with instruments that share some of the same risks. The investor has “basis risk” when imperfect hedges are employed. (As an aside, the investor might be able to set up a contract with someone who, for a fee, will take on the liability risk that cannot be hedged. Insurance contracts have this defining characteristic.)

EXAMPLE 6

The Hedging/Return-Seeking Portfolios Approach

Compare how surplus optimization and the hedging/return-seeking portfolio approach take account of liabilities.
Solution to 1:
The surplus optimization approach links assets and the present value of liabilities through a correlation coefficient. The two-portfolio model does not require this input. Surplus optimization considers the asset allocation problem in one step; the hedging/return-seeking portfolio approach divides asset allocation into two steps.
How does funding status affect the use of the basic hedging/return-seeking portfolio approach?
Solution to 2:
Implementation of the basic two-portfolio approach depends on having an overfunded plan. A variant of the two-portfolio approach might be applied, however. Surplus optimization does not require an overfunded status. Both approaches address the present value of liabilities, but in different ways.

Integrated Asset–Liability Approach

The previous two approaches are most appropriate when asset allocation decisions are made after, and relatively independently of, decisions regarding the portfolio of liabilities. However, there are numerous applications of the liability-relative perspective in which the institution must render significant decisions regarding the composition of its liabilities in conjunction with the asset allocation. Banks, long–short hedge funds (for which short positions constitute liabilities), insurance companies, and re-insurance companies routinely fall into this situation. Within this category, the liability-relative approaches have several names, including asset–liability management (ALM) for banks and some other investors and dynamic financial analysis (DFA) for insurance companies. These approaches are often implemented in the context of multi-period models. Using the following two cases, we review the major issues.

Integrated Asset–Liability Approach for Property/Casualty Insurance Companies

A property/casualty insurance company must make asset investment decisions in conjunction with business decisions about the portfolio of insured properties, its liabilities. To that end, asset and liability decisions are frequently integrated in an enterprise risk management system. In fact, the liability portfolio is essential to the company’s long-term viability. For example, a particular property/casualty (PC) insurance company might engage (accept) liabilities for catastrophic risks such as earthquakes and hurricanes. In this case, the liabilities depend upon rare events and thus are most difficult to hedge against. Specialized firms calculate insured losses for a chosen set of properties for property/casualty insurance companies, and these firms provide liability cash flows on a probabilistic (scenario) basis. In this way information is gathered about the probability of losses over the planning horizon and the estimated losses for each loss event. An important issue involves the amount of capital needed to support the indicated liabilities. This issue is addressed by evaluating the tail risks, such as the 1% Value-at-Risk or Conditional-Value-at-Risk amount. To reduce this risk, there are major advantages to forming a diversified global portfolio of liabilities and rendering asset allocation decisions in conjunction with the liability portfolio decisions. The hedging portfolio in this case is not well defined. Therefore, it is difficult to hedge liabilities for a book of catastrophic risk policies. Liabilities might be addressed via customized products or by purchasing re-insurance. The assets and liabilities are integrated so that the worst-case events can be analyzed with regard to both sides of the balance sheet.

Integrated Asset–Liability Approach for Banks

Large global banks are often required to analyze their ability to withstand stress scenarios, in accordance with the Basel III framework. These institutions must be able to show that their current capital is adequate to withstand losses in their business units, such as asset trading, in conjunction with increases in liabilities. The chief risk officer evaluates these scenarios by means of integrated asset–liability approaches. The asset and liability decisions are linked in an enterprise manner. Both the portfolio of assets and the portfolio of liabilities have major impacts on the organization’s risk. Thus, decisions to take on new products or expand an existing product—thereby generating liabilities—must take into account the associated decisions on the asset side. The integrated asset–liability management system provides a mechanism for discovering the optimal mix of assets and liabilities (products). These applications often employ multi-period models via a set of projected scenarios.

Decisions about asset allocation will affect the amount of business available to a financial intermediary, such as a bank or insurance company. Similarly, decisions about the portfolio of liabilities and concentration risks will feed back to the asset allocation decisions. Accordingly, we can set up a linked portfolio model. In a similar fashion, the performance of the assets of an institution possessing quasi-liabilities, such as a university endowment, will affect the spending rules for the institution. We can reduce worst-case outcomes by adjusting spending during crash periods, for example. Portfolio models linked to liabilities can provide significant information, helping the institution make the best compromise decisions for both the assets and the liabilities under its control. The twin goals are to maximize the growth of surplus over time subject to constraints on worst-case and other risk measures relative to the institution’s surplus.

Comparing the Approaches

Exhibit 28:

Characteristics of the Three Liability-Relative Asset Allocation Approaches

Surplus Optimization

Hedging/Return-Seeking Portfolios

Integrated Asset–Liability Portfolios

Simplicity

Increased complexity

Linear correlation

Linear or non-linear correlation

All levels of risk

Conservative level of risk

All levels of risk

Any funded ratio

Positive funded ratio for basic approach

Any funded ratio

Single period

Multiple periods

EXAMPLE 7

Liability-Relative Asset Allocation: Major Approaches

Discuss how the probability of not being able to pay future liabilities when they come due is or is not addressed by each of the major approaches to liability-relative asset allocation.
Solution to 1:
Such issues are best addressed by means of multi-period integrated asset–liability models. Surplus optimization and the two-portfolio approach, being single-period models, have difficulty estimating the probability of meeting future obligations.
What are the advantages of the three approaches for investors who are more interested in protecting the surplus than growing their assets? Assume that the investor has a positive surplus.
Solution to 2:
The three liability-relative approaches are appropriate for conservative investors (investors who are more interested in protecting the surplus than growing their assets). All of the three approaches force investors to understand the nature of their liabilities. This type of information can help inform the decision-making process.

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